I'm Alan Lamb, an applied economist and MPA with a focus on forecasting, environmental economics, and policy analysis. My work sits at the intersection of quantitative modeling and real-world decision-making. I aim to bring clarity to uncertain environments and help organizations think more clearly about the future.
I build forecasts, analyze economic and environmental trends, and explore how uncertainty shapes policy choices. My interests range from national and global forecasting questions to regional issues in the Mountain West, including conservation, land use, and economic development. I’m especially interested in how forecasting methods can support long-term planning in communities like those in Montana, where I live and hope to continue contributing.
My approach blends probabilistic reasoning, applied economics, and structured analysis. I use Python, R, and Stata to build models, evaluate evidence, and visualize uncertainty. I also draw on research traditions that emphasize calibration, base rates, scenario thinking, and disciplined updating. My goal is to produce forecasts and analyses that are transparent, testable, and useful for policy and planning.
Lambcast is my public workspace—a place to publish forecasts, explain my reasoning, and write about the economic and environmental questions that matter to me. It’s also a portfolio for employers and collaborators who want to see how I think, how I model uncertainty, and how I connect analysis to real-world decisions.